Fed signals send stocks on a bumpy path


Recap: Global markets were mixed yesterday after rocking throughout the week as investors reacted to signals from the Federal Reserve indicating aggressive monetary tightening, while US GDP data showed surprisingly strong growth in the fourth quarter despite the spread of Omicron.

The SET index traded in a range of 1,617.87 and 1,654.99 points this week before closing yesterday at 1,639.51, down 0.8% from the previous week, with a reading of ‘average daily business of 83.74 billion baht.

Foreign investors were net buyers of 4.38 billion baht and retail investors bought 1.58 billion. Institutional investors were net sellers of 3.83 billion baht and brokerage firms sold 2.12 billion baht worth of shares.

Journalists: The Federal Reserve gave a clear signal this week that it is ready to raise US interest rates in March for the first time since cutting them to zero following the arrival of Covid-19.

Stock markets fell on Thursday after a late selloff on Wall Street in response to a surprisingly hawkish turn by US Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell.

The U.S. economy grew at a much better than expected pace through the end of 2021, helped by significant increases in inventories and consumer spending. GDP grew 6.9% year-on-year, leading to full-year growth of 5.7%, the strongest since 1984.

Global oil prices are unlikely to surge above $100 a barrel despite concerns over supply disruptions caused by conflict in exporting countries, according to national oil and gas conglomerate PTT Plc.

The IMF on Tuesday called on El Salvador to change course and stop using bitcoin as legal tender, citing “significant risks” posed by the cryptocurrency.

The World Trade Organization on Wednesday handed China a victory, allowing it to impose duties on $645 million of US imports a year, in a longstanding anti-dumping dispute with Washington.

Apple reclaimed its position as China’s top smartphone seller after six years, recording record market share in the final quarter of 2021 as US sanctions hit rival Huawei, researchers say.

Microsoft beat market expectations on Tuesday with strong quarterly performance in cloud computing and software, still benefiting from the shift of work, play, shopping and learning online.

Australia-based Woodside Petroleum is the latest international energy company to leave junta-ruled Myanmar, following the withdrawal of TotalEnergies and Chevron from their gas venture Yadana.

Thailand’s PTT Exploration and Production Plc (PTTEP), a partner of TotalEnergies and Chevron in Myanmar’s largest gas field, is set to take over operation of the venture, industry analysts said.

Asia-Pacific hotels are set to receive more than $9 billion in investment this year, a 30% increase from 2021, as countries begin to ease their Covid restrictions and some confidence returns in the hospitality sector, according to JLL.

Passenger capacity at embattled Hong Kong carrier Cathay Pacific is expected to remain just 2% of pre-pandemic levels, hampered by the city’s strict Covid travel restrictions, while rivals such as Singapore Airlines recover to nearly 50 %.

AirAsia Group said it carried 2.7 million passengers in the fourth quarter, more than double from a year earlier, after Malaysia eased travel restrictions. AirAsia Malaysia saw a 164% increase in passengers, but AirAsia Thailand’s numbers were down 59%, he said.

The Philippine economy rebounded stronger than expected in 2021 after an easing of Covid rules fueled consumer spending and brought more people back to work, as authorities forecast a return to pre-pandemic growth this year .

South Korea’s Kospi, down 20% from its July 2021 peak, is Asia’s worst performer this year. It entered a bear market this week as selling intensified after the Fed’s latest rate signals.

The Bank of Thailand is expected to be the last in Southeast Asia to raise rates, leading to one of the steepest yield curves in the region, as other countries brace for the first U.S. rate hike since 2018, according to HSBC analysts.

The central bank says it has detected no signs of an increase in non-performing loans (NPLs) under various debtor support measures. NPLs amounted to 3.14% of loans at the end of September, compared to 3.04% in the first quarter of 2020.

The government is considering taxing stock trading for the first time in more than three decades, as well as a tax on profits from crypto trading, as the government seeks revenue to fund pandemic relief.

Regulators intend to ban cryptocurrencies as payment for goods and services, citing financial stability risks, but the BoT is considering promoting the use of stablecoins for certain types of payments, saying that this could promote financial innovation.

Consumer spending over the Lunar New Year could fall for the third straight year to an 11-year low of around 40 billion baht due to a sluggish economy, the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce predicts. (UTTC).

Commerce Minister Jurin Laksanawisit has pledged to tackle high palm oil prices after cooking oil prices jumped to nearly 70 baht per bottle from 56-60 baht at the end of last year.

The cabinet on Monday approved a proposal to include chickens and chicken meat on the state’s price control list, as well as tougher measures for chicken farmers, slaughterhouses and animal meal factories.

Car exports are set to rise to 1 million units for the first time in two years as the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) pin their hopes on a limited impact of Covid and the global shortage of semiconductors on the market. ‘automobile industry.

The FTI is working to help 2,500 automotive suppliers used to producing parts for internal combustion engines to transition to making components for electric vehicles.

Toyota Motor Thailand expects its car sales in the country to rise 18.5 percent to 284,000 vehicles this year, the company said on Thursday.

The Office of the Insurance Commission (OIC) says Southeast Insurance has not been approved for liquidation, noting that all coverage is still in place. Parent Thai Group Holdings said earlier it had closed the insurer due to increased claims for Covid insurance payouts, but would be able to pay all claims.

Future : China will release the January manufacturing PMI on Monday. Japan will release December employment data on Tuesday. On the same day, Australia will release retail sales for December and its central bank will announce its latest policy decision. Germany will release the January manufacturing PMI and unemployment, and the US will release the January manufacturing PMI.

New Zealand will release fourth quarter employment data, the Eurozone will release January consumer prices and the US will release January non-farm payrolls on Wednesday.

The Bank of England and the European Central Bank will announce their policy decisions on Thursday, Australia will release December trade figures and the United States will release updated productivity data. On Friday, the United States will release nonfarm payrolls and unemployment for January.

Actions to watch: Capital Nomura Securities recommends companies expected to perform well in 2021, including PLANB, BE8, SPALI and AP, and companies with good long-term growth potential after the Fed raises interest rates, including KBANK , SCB and KKP. Telecom stocks will continue to see strong growth even if the pandemic persists. The best choices of the bunch are ADVANC and TRUE.

KTB Securities Thailand recommends high dividend stocks including TISCO, KKP and PTT. The brokerage selects seven stocks for a portfolio, including TIPH (15%), BAM (15%), KCE (15%), BBL (15%), PTT (15%), IVL (10%) and GULF ( 10%).

Technical view: Capital Nomura sees support at 1617 and resistance at 1650. DBS Vickers Securities sees support at 1610 and resistance at 1650.


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